Discussion:
The election
(too old to reply)
ajohnstone
2020-11-01 21:27:58 UTC
Permalink
Just a day away now. So what are the predictions?

I will follow the bookies rather than the polls and the political pundits
and say it will be a convincing win for Biden on both the popular vote and
the electoral college. I also believe the Republicans will lose their
majority in the Senate.

What do others foretell?
John Corbett
2020-11-02 14:26:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by ajohnstone
Just a day away now. So what are the predictions?
I will follow the bookies rather than the polls and the political pundits
and say it will be a convincing win for Biden on both the popular vote and
the electoral college. I also believe the Republicans will lose their
majority in the Senate.
What do others foretell?
As was the case in 2016, there is a huge disconnect between the polling
data and the anecdotal evidence. Your prediction is in line with the
polling data. The anecdotal evidence tells a different story. Trump's
rallies draw thousands while Biden's draw hundreds. There was a Biden
drive in rally in which more Trump supporters showed up than Biden
supporters. Some astute Democrat operatives are sounding alarms. In 2016,
Michael Moore was the canary in the coal mine (a big fat canary). On
matters of public policy I can't think of a single time I have agreed with
Moore on anything but he was spot on with his warning about Hillary being
in danger of losing Michigan which is Moore's home state. He is sounding
similary warnings this time around. He said whatever lead the polls show
Biden having, you can cut it in half and that brings his polling lead to
within the margin of error. Michigan congresswoman Debbie Dingell is also
telling people she is troubled by the fact autoworkers are telling he they
are going to vote Republican as they did in 2016. They used to be a vital
piece of the Democrat coalition but they have been trending Republican in
the last two presidential elections. Then we have James Carvelle, another
Democrat with him I don't share any views but he probably understands
politics as well as anybody in this country. He is looking at the early
voting data from Dade County (Miami) and it troubles him. Biden has to win
big in Dade in order to carry Florida. Blacks and Hispanics are not
turning out in the numbers they did in 2016 which was also down from what
Obama was drawing. In addition, Trump is polling ahead of of what he did
in 2016 with both those groups. He only got 8% of the black vote in 2016
but it's possible he could double that in 2020. Black and Hispanic votes
are down from where they were in 2016 and the Democrats will probably get
a smaller share than four years ago. With numbers like that, it is hard to
imagine the Democrat carrying Florida. If Biden is doing poorly with the
black and Hispanic vote Florida, is there any reason to think that would
be the case in other swing states which the Democrats have to win back to
win the White House. Lastly Biden made a huge gaffe during the last
debate when he said he wanted to move the country away from fossil fuels.
Coal, oil, and natural gas are vital to the Pennsylvania economy and that
is not a message that will appeal to voters in that state. Philadelphia in
the east and Pittsburg in the west a Democrat strongholds but in between
the state has been compared to Alabama. As is the case in Florida,
Democrats must win those two big cities by huge margins to offset the
Republican vote in the center of the state. If black and Hispanic voters
don't turn out big, it's hard to imagine the Democrats winning the
state.

I'm not into predicting. After the votes are counted we might get an idea
of why there is a disconnect between the polling numbers and the anecdotal
evidence. If it turns out it is the presidential polling numbers which are
flawed, it likely means the pollsters are oversampling Democrat voters
which would indicate projections in the Senate could also be wrong.
Republicans hold 53 seats and are almost sure to flip the Alabama seat
back into their column. There is an outside chance they could also flip
Michigan. Even if they don't, the Democrats have to flip four Republican
seats if they win the White House and five if they don't. Collins in Maine
and McSally in Arizona appear to be the most vulnerable. Republican seats
in North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, and two seats in Georgia seem to be up
for grabs. The interesting thing about Georgia is that both seats will
likely be determined by run off elections. Those will be held after the
winner of the White House is known. If Biden has won the election and
control of the Senate is in the balance, swing voters in Georgia might be
reluctant to hand the Democrats all three levers of power and instead
elect Republicans to both of those seats. The alternative would be to risk
empowering the Democrats to implement their radical leftist agenda.
Anthony Marsh
2020-11-04 13:29:58 UTC
Permalink
Post by John Corbett
Post by ajohnstone
Just a day away now. So what are the predictions?
I will follow the bookies rather than the polls and the political pundits
and say it will be a convincing win for Biden on both the popular vote and
the electoral college. I also believe the Republicans will lose their
majority in the Senate.
What do others foretell?
As was the case in 2016, there is a huge disconnect between the polling
Where you even old enough to vote in 2016?
Do you remember how long it ook to get the final election results? 11PM?
Which state ir territory was the last to report their results?
Post by John Corbett
data and the anecdotal evidence. Your prediction is in line with the
polling data. The anecdotal evidence tells a different story. Trump's
rallies draw thousands while Biden's draw hundreds. There was a Biden
drive in rally in which more Trump supporters showed up than Biden
supporters. Some astute Democrat operatives are sounding alarms. In 2016,
Michael Moore was the canary in the coal mine (a big fat canary). On
matters of public policy I can't think of a single time I have agreed with
Moore on anything but he was spot on with his warning about Hillary being
in danger of losing Michigan which is Moore's home state. He is sounding
similary warnings this time around. He said whatever lead the polls show
Biden having, you can cut it in half and that brings his polling lead to
within the margin of error. Michigan congresswoman Debbie Dingell is also
telling people she is troubled by the fact autoworkers are telling he they
are going to vote Republican as they did in 2016. They used to be a vital
piece of the Democrat coalition but they have been trending Republican in
the last two presidential elections. Then we have James Carvelle, another
Democrat with him I don't share any views but he probably understands
politics as well as anybody in this country. He is looking at the early
voting data from Dade County (Miami) and it troubles him. Biden has to win
big in Dade in order to carry Florida. Blacks and Hispanics are not
turning out in the numbers they did in 2016 which was also down from what
Obama was drawing. In addition, Trump is polling ahead of of what he did
in 2016 with both those groups. He only got 8% of the black vote in 2016
but it's possible he could double that in 2020. Black and Hispanic votes
are down from where they were in 2016 and the Democrats will probably get
a smaller share than four years ago. With numbers like that, it is hard to
imagine the Democrat carrying Florida. If Biden is doing poorly with the
black and Hispanic vote Florida, is there any reason to think that would
be the case in other swing states which the Democrats have to win back to
win the White House. Lastly Biden made a huge gaffe during the last
debate when he said he wanted to move the country away from fossil fuels.
Coal, oil, and natural gas are vital to the Pennsylvania economy and that
is not a message that will appeal to voters in that state. Philadelphia in
the east and Pittsburg in the west a Democrat strongholds but in between
the state has been compared to Alabama. As is the case in Florida,
Democrats must win those two big cities by huge margins to offset the
Republican vote in the center of the state. If black and Hispanic voters
don't turn out big, it's hard to imagine the Democrats winning the
state.
I'm not into predicting. After the votes are counted we might get an idea
of why there is a disconnect between the polling numbers and the anecdotal
evidence. If it turns out it is the presidential polling numbers which are
flawed, it likely means the pollsters are oversampling Democrat voters
which would indicate projections in the Senate could also be wrong.
Republicans hold 53 seats and are almost sure to flip the Alabama seat
back into their column. There is an outside chance they could also flip
Michigan. Even if they don't, the Democrats have to flip four Republican
seats if they win the White House and five if they don't. Collins in Maine
and McSally in Arizona appear to be the most vulnerable. Republican seats
in North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, and two seats in Georgia seem to be up
for grabs. The interesting thing about Georgia is that both seats will
likely be determined by run off elections. Those will be held after the
winner of the White House is known. If Biden has won the election and
control of the Senate is in the balance, swing voters in Georgia might be
reluctant to hand the Democrats all three levers of power and instead
elect Republicans to both of those seats. The alternative would be to risk
empowering the Democrats to implement their radical leftist agenda.
ajohnstone
2020-11-06 02:22:15 UTC
Permalink
Still ongoing but one early conclusion is once again Trump has
out-performed the polls
John Corbett
2020-11-07 00:57:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by ajohnstone
Still ongoing but one early conclusion is once again Trump has
out-performed the polls
Anybody who believes polls in future is a damn fool. Most of these polls
are intended to shape public opinion rather than reflect it. The ABC/WSJ
poll indicated that Biden would win Wisconsin by 17 points. The current
tally, if it is to be believed, has Biden ahead by 0.63. What was the
margin of error on the poll? 16.5 +/-?
Jason Burke
2020-11-07 13:32:22 UTC
Permalink
Post by John Corbett
Post by ajohnstone
Still ongoing but one early conclusion is once again Trump has
out-performed the polls
Anybody who believes polls in future is a damn fool. Most of these polls
are intended to shape public opinion rather than reflect it. The ABC/WSJ
poll indicated that Biden would win Wisconsin by 17 points. The current
tally, if it is to be believed, has Biden ahead by 0.63. What was the
margin of error on the poll? 16.5 +/-?
Yeah. They asked seven people.
John Corbett
2020-11-09 01:52:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jason Burke
Post by John Corbett
Post by ajohnstone
Still ongoing but one early conclusion is once again Trump has
out-performed the polls
Anybody who believes polls in future is a damn fool. Most of these polls
are intended to shape public opinion rather than reflect it. The ABC/WSJ
poll indicated that Biden would win Wisconsin by 17 points. The current
tally, if it is to be believed, has Biden ahead by 0.63. What was the
margin of error on the poll? 16.5 +/-?
Yeah. They asked seven people.
And two of them lied.
Anthony Marsh
2020-11-09 01:52:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jason Burke
Post by John Corbett
Post by ajohnstone
Still ongoing but one early conclusion is once again Trump has
out-performed the polls
Anybody who believes polls in future is a damn fool. Most of these polls
are intended to shape public opinion rather than reflect it. The ABC/WSJ
poll indicated that Biden would win Wisconsin by 17 points. The current
tally, if it is to be believed, has Biden ahead by 0.63. What was the
margin of error on the poll? 16.5 +/-?
Yeah. They asked seven people.
Do you even know ehat a poll is?
Just call it a hoax.
Jason Burke
2020-11-10 04:03:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by Anthony Marsh
Post by Jason Burke
Post by John Corbett
Post by ajohnstone
Still ongoing but one early conclusion is once again Trump has
out-performed the polls
Anybody who believes polls in future is a damn fool. Most of these polls
are intended to shape public opinion rather than reflect it. The ABC/WSJ
poll indicated that Biden would win Wisconsin by 17 points. The current
tally, if it is to be believed, has Biden ahead by 0.63. What was the
margin of error on the poll? 16.5 +/-?
Yeah. They asked seven people.
Do you even know ehat a poll is?
Aba zaba ziba again, hun, Tony?
Post by Anthony Marsh
Just call it a hoax.
Anthony Marsh
2020-11-09 01:52:22 UTC
Permalink
Post by John Corbett
Post by ajohnstone
Still ongoing but one early conclusion is once again Trump has
out-performed the polls
Anybody who believes polls in future is a damn fool. Most of these polls
are intended to shape public opinion rather than reflect it. The ABC/WSJ
poll indicated that Biden would win Wisconsin by 17 points. The current
tally, if it is to be believed, has Biden ahead by 0.63. What was the
margin of error on the poll? 16.5 +/-?
Do you even know what a poll is?
Just call everything a hoax.
John Corbett
2020-11-06 02:22:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Anthony Marsh
Post by John Corbett
Post by ajohnstone
Just a day away now. So what are the predictions?
I will follow the bookies rather than the polls and the political pundits
and say it will be a convincing win for Biden on both the popular vote and
the electoral college. I also believe the Republicans will lose their
majority in the Senate.
What do others foretell?
As was the case in 2016, there is a huge disconnect between the polling
Where you even old enough to vote in 2016?
Do you remember how long it ook to get the final election results? 11PM?
Which state ir territory was the last to report their results?
Do you feel a compulsion to make an inane post in every thread?
Anthony Marsh
2020-11-07 13:31:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by John Corbett
Post by Anthony Marsh
Post by John Corbett
Post by ajohnstone
Just a day away now. So what are the predictions?
I will follow the bookies rather than the polls and the political pundits
and say it will be a convincing win for Biden on both the popular vote and
the electoral college. I also believe the Republicans will lose their
majority in the Senate.
What do others foretell?
As was the case in 2016, there is a huge disconnect between the polling
Where you even old enough to vote in 2016?
Do you remember how long it ook to get the final election results? 11PM?
Which state ir territory was the last to report their results?
Do you feel a compulsion to make an inane post in every thread?
I csn't possibly keep up with every thread. How about just yours?
John Corbett
2020-11-03 23:34:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by ajohnstone
Just a day away now. So what are the predictions?
I will follow the bookies rather than the polls and the political pundits
and say it will be a convincing win for Biden on both the popular vote and
the electoral college. I also believe the Republicans will lose their
majority in the Senate.
What do others foretell?
I forgot to comment on this in my first reply. When you say you are
following the bookies, you are really following the betting public.
Bookies do not try to predict the outcome of events. They can't do that
accurately. What bookies are able to do very well is predict how the
betting public is going to wager on a given event. They are generally
really good at doing that. Their goal is to balance the odds so that no
matter which way an event goes, they will make money on their edge,
generally 10%. In football games they set point spreads based not on what
they believe the outcome of a game will be but on what they calculated
will get a roughly equal amount of money bet on both teams. The games are
bet at 6-5 odd no matter which team you bet on. You bet 6 to win 5. If 100
people bet on the game and 50 bet on each team, the bookies collect $6
from the 50 people who lost and pay $5 to the 50 people who won. That
gives them a profit of $50 on $500 wagered.

With an event like a presidential race, there is no point spread. Instead
they accomplish the same thing by giving odds. If they set their odds
correctly, they will make the amount of money no matter who wins. Fewer
people will bet on the underdog but they will earn as much as the pool
of people who bet on the favorite. Odds are adjusted during the course of
the race as the public's perception of who is likely to win changes.
Looking at the current betting odds on Real Clear Politics, Biden is
averaging a 64% chance of winning the election among the various
oddsmakers. That means slightly less than 2 out of 3 bettors expect a
Biden victory. I've never bet on a presidential race and I don't believe
it is legal to do so anywhere in the US. Overseas bookmakers set Biden's
odds at -200 which means you have to risk $200 to win $100. Trump's is
listed at +170 which means a $100 wager will win $170. The bookies don't
know nor do they care who is going to win the race. They know they will
make money no matter what the outcome is because they have set odds that
will give them a profit either way. Bookies do not like to gamble. They
want a sure thing. If they have set their odds to balance the wagering
correctly, they will achieve that.
Bud
2020-11-09 02:06:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by ajohnstone
Just a day away now. So what are the predictions?
I will follow the bookies rather than the polls and the political pundits
and say it will be a convincing win for Biden on both the popular vote and
the electoral college. I also believe the Republicans will lose their
majority in the Senate.
What do others foretell?
Well, I got out in Pennsylvania, but they still haven`t counted my vote.
I went online and registered, and got an email saying I was good to go,
but when I went to the polls, I wasn`t on any of the voting lists. Lady
said I could do a "provisional ballot". I said "ok, let`s do that". Filled
out the form, form goes into an envelope, envelope gets stamped, I get a
receipt with a number to check online to see if my vote was counted. I`ve
been going back every day and I keep getting this message...

"A certified provisional ballot was not found. Please wait 3 to 7 days
after the election and search again. If you have questions, please contact
your county election office. For a list of county contacts, Click here"

"Click here" leads to this information...

Mr. Garrett Dietz
Supervisor of Elections
Philadelphia County Board of Elections
Rm. 142
City Hall
Philadelphia, PA 19107
(215) 686-3469

I have a better chance that Jesus Christ answers this phone then anyone
in this office.

This election stinks to high heaven.
John Corbett
2020-11-11 02:11:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bud
Post by ajohnstone
Just a day away now. So what are the predictions?
I will follow the bookies rather than the polls and the political pundits
and say it will be a convincing win for Biden on both the popular vote and
the electoral college. I also believe the Republicans will lose their
majority in the Senate.
What do others foretell?
Well, I got out in Pennsylvania, but they still haven`t counted my vote.
I went online and registered, and got an email saying I was good to go,
but when I went to the polls, I wasn`t on any of the voting lists. Lady
said I could do a "provisional ballot". I said "ok, let`s do that". Filled
out the form, form goes into an envelope, envelope gets stamped, I get a
receipt with a number to check online to see if my vote was counted. I`ve
been going back every day and I keep getting this message...
"A certified provisional ballot was not found. Please wait 3 to 7 days
after the election and search again. If you have questions, please contact
your county election office. For a list of county contacts, Click here"
"Click here" leads to this information...
Mr. Garrett Dietz
Supervisor of Elections
Philadelphia County Board of Elections
Rm. 142
City Hall
Philadelphia, PA 19107
(215) 686-3469
I have a better chance that Jesus Christ answers this phone then anyone
in this office.
This election stinks to high heaven.
The problem will be proving it and even if that is done, what would the
remedy be? How can votes that have already been counted be uncounted. In
Pennsylvania, the bone of contention seems to be the mail in ballots that
were postmarked by November 3 but received after that date. The law states
that only ballots received by election day can be counted but a judge
ruled that they had to accept them until November 6. The Constitution
empowers the legislature, not the courts, to decide how electors are
chosen. SCOTUS refused to take the case before the election but left open
the possibility they could get involved afterward and that was before ACB
was on the court. Even if Trump prevails in PA, it won't get him across
the finish line. He needs to flip two more states. I don't know what
grounds he is looking at in the other four close states he lost. It's
like a football game where he has the ball at his own 1 yard line and has
time for two plays. He first has to complete a Hail Mary to get to
midfield and another one to score. It looks like the longest of longshots.
Anthony Marsh
2020-11-13 03:29:47 UTC
Permalink
Post by John Corbett
Post by Bud
Post by ajohnstone
Just a day away now. So what are the predictions?
I will follow the bookies rather than the polls and the political
pundits and say it will be a convincing win for Biden on both the
popular vote and the electoral college. I also believe the
Republicans will lose their majority in the Senate.
What do others foretell?
Well, I got out in Pennsylvania, but they still haven`t counted my
vote. I went online and registered, and got an email saying I was
good to go, but when I went to the polls, I wasn`t on any of the
voting lists. Lady said I could do a "provisional ballot". I said
"ok, let`s do that". Filled out the form, form goes into an
envelope, envelope gets stamped, I get a receipt with a number to
check online to see if my vote was counted. I`ve been going back
every day and I keep getting this message...
"A certified provisional ballot was not found. Please wait 3 to 7
days after the election and search again. If you have questions,
please contact your county election office. For a list of county
contacts, Click here"
"Click here" leads to this information...
Mr. Garrett Dietz Supervisor of Elections Philadelphia County Board
of Elections Rm. 142 City Hall Philadelphia, PA 19107 (215)
686-3469
I have a better chance that Jesus Christ answers this phone then
anyone in this office.
This election stinks to high heaven.
The problem will be proving it and even if that is done, what would
the remedy be? How can votes that have already been counted be
uncounted. In Pennsylvania, the bone of contention seems to be the
mail in ballots that were postmarked by November 3 but received after
that date. The law states that only ballots received by election day
can be counted but a judge ruled that they had to accept them until
November 6. The Constitution empowers the legislature, not the
courts, to decide how electors are chosen. SCOTUS refused to take the
case before the election but left open the possibility they could get
involved afterward and that was before ACB was on the court. Even if
Trump prevails in PA, it won't get him across the finish line. He
needs to flip two more states. I don't know what grounds he is
looking at in the other four close states he lost. It's like a
football game where he has the ball at his own 1 yard line and has
time for two plays. He first has to complete a Hail Mary to get to
midfield and another one to score. It looks like the longest of longshots.
REpublicans are crooks:

Postal worker admits fabricating Trump-pushed claims of voter fraud in
Pennsylvania: House committee



A postal worker in Pennsylvania has admitted to making up explosive
accusations about mail-in voting irregularities in the 2020 election
that were picked up by supporters of President Trump as supposed
evidence of fraud, according to congressional investigators.

Richard Hopkins, a U.S. Postal Service employee in Erie, Pa., first
alleged last week that his supervisor had instructed staff to backdate
mail-in ballots cast after Election Day in order to get them counted ???
which would be illegal.

The claims were seized on by the Trump campaign and congressional
Republicans as proof that Trump had good reason to not concede the
election to President-elect Joe Biden ??? especially since Hopkins had
signed a sworn affidavit to certify his allegations.

But Hopkins admitted to investigators from the U.S. Postal Service
inspector general???s office on Monday that his allegations were false,
according to the House Oversight Committee.

???IG investigators informed committee staff today that they interviewed
Hopkins on Friday, but that Hopkins RECANTED HIS ALLEGATIONS yesterday
and did not explain why he signed a false affidavit,??? the Democrat-led
committee tweeted late Tuesday.

The revelations come as Trump continues to refuse to acknowledge Biden???s
victory, citing baseless claims of widespread voter fraud in the election.
Anthony Marsh
2020-11-11 02:12:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bud
Post by ajohnstone
Just a day away now. So what are the predictions?
I will follow the bookies rather than the polls and the political pundits
and say it will be a convincing win for Biden on both the popular vote and
the electoral college. I also believe the Republicans will lose their
majority in the Senate.
What do others foretell?
Well, I got out in Pennsylvania, but they still haven`t counted my vote.
I went online and registered, and got an email saying I was good to go,
but when I went to the polls, I wasn`t on any of the voting lists. Lady
said I could do a "provisional ballot". I said "ok, let`s do that". Filled
out the form, form goes into an envelope, envelope gets stamped, I get a
receipt with a number to check online to see if my vote was counted. I`ve
been going back every day and I keep getting this message...
"A certified provisional ballot was not found. Please wait 3 to 7 days
after the election and search again. If you have questions, please contact
your county election office. For a list of county contacts, Click here"
"Click here" leads to this information...
Mr. Garrett Dietz
Supervisor of Elections
Philadelphia County Board of Elections
Rm. 142
City Hall
Philadelphia, PA 19107
(215) 686-3469
I have a better chance that Jesus Christ answers this phone then anyone
in this office.
This election stinks to high heaven.
No, YOU do.
Do you believe that Zombies voted?
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