Post by ajohnstonePost by John CorbettThere has been serious talk about splitting California into three states
Indeed much of it from billionaire Tim Draper but i fail to find any
serious talk from the Californian Democratic Party. And from what i can
see, Draper's personal politics are not sympathetic to Democratic Party
policies.
For a more informed view than my own though i did find this opinion.
https://verdict.justia.com/2018/04/19/california-voters-focus-voting-tim-drapers-cal-3-initiative
"... “Northern California” and
“California”—containing the Bay Area, and Los
Angeles, respectively—could continue to be counted on to deliver
for Democratic candidates their 39 or so (combined) electors.
But—and this is the crucial point—because the newly
created “Southern California” state could easily vote for
a Republican presidential candidate (as noted above, Mitt Romney almost
beat Barack Obama in 2012 in this region) and give its 20 or so electors
to a Republican, then Democrats would run a serious risk moving from a
55-0 advantage in California to something like 39-20 (a total of 59,
because the creation of two additional states would increase the electoral
college denominator by four, and every state gets two electors on account
of having two senators), a net advantage of only 19, considerably less
than half of the 55-electoral-vote edge the Dems currently enjoy. Even if
Democrats could hope to win “Southern California” from
time to time, Democrat party loyalists —both in California and in
DC—should be very reluctant to run the risk that inheres in Mr.
Draper’s proposal. There is very little upside, and considerable
downside, presented by CAL3 for Democrats when it comes to presidential
elections."
You beat me to it. I sent a post describing the Cal-3 plan but John hasn't
gotten to it yet. One thing you can count on is that whomever is proposing
this is doing it for partisan political purposes. Whether such a plan
would help Democrats or Republicans would depend on how the state is
carved up. Gerrymandering is something that is usually done in
congressional or state legislative districts but when a state is divided,
it could be done on a larger scale . Democrats could split up California
in a way that would guarantee there would be 6 likely Dem senators from
the 3 new states, while Republicans could draw the lines in way that would
given then a good chance to get one or two of the Senate seats and a
realistic chance of carrying one of the three Californias in a
presidential election. Since the Democrats now rule California, you can
count on any division being favorable to them. In order to split up the
state, California's legislature would have to vote in favor of it, a new
constitution proposed for each state, and then the proposal would have to
be sent to Congress for final approval by both Houses. My reading of the
Constitution tells me the President would not be involved in the process
unless I overlooked something.
You correctly identified the danger to Democrats of splitting the state.
It would run the risk of splitting their electors. This is the reason 48
of the 50 states opted for a winner take all system back in the 1800s. It
maximizes the states' influence in presidential elections. It's an
interesting academic discussion but I don't think the plan is going
anywhere. I read that the California Supreme Court ruled it c= ould not be
done by ballot initiative where it might have stood a chance. It's
something the legislature would have to push through and I doubt there is
the will to do that.
Most of the noise about splitting up California is now coming from
liberals who think it is unfair that their state is disproportionately
represented in both the Senate and the Electoral College. That's the way
it was intended. The Senate was not intended to be a representative body.
If it was it would be redundant to the House of Representatives. The
Senate was formed to give all states an equal say in one half of the
legislative branch. The formula for allocating electors created a hybrid
in which the larger states get more electors but proportionally the
smaller states get more. That too was intentional. It was one of many
compromises that was necessary to get all states to ratify the original
Constitution.
Post by ajohnstoneIn 2011, it was a Republican official who proposed that 13 largely
conservative-leaning southern California counties break off to form their
own state.
But when the debate on the size and shape of the States are debated, isn't
it all just a grand plan of partisan gerrymandering at the end off the
day, nothing to do with democracy really.
That would be true if any modern day carving up of the states were to be
done but the reason for the size and shape of the original borders is much
more fascinating than that. The state of West Virginia was created by the
Civil War because most of the people on that side of the Blue Ridge were
against secession. In the 1800s, Ohio and Michigan fought a mostly
bloodless border war over a strip of land that includes Toledo. The joke
is that Michigan won the war and Ohio got stuck with Toledo. My old home
state of Nebraska had a decades long dispute with Iowa over small patch of
land. The Missouri River forms the border between the two states. In the
1850s, the river flooded and when it receded, it had cut a new channel
which isolated a small piece of Iowa on the west side of the Missouri.
Both states claimed it as their own. I think it was in the 1880s the
Supreme Court ruled in favor of Iowa and now the village of Carter Lake,
Iowa is on the west side of the Missouri. Carter Lake is what is left of
the old channel of the Missouri.
Post by ajohnstoneRegardless of party affiliation, one promising aspect of 2020 was the
record breaking number of voters for both the winner and the runner-up,
despite the pandemic and a background of civil unrest. Participation in
the process rather than voter suppression is the way to go if you seek a
healthy democracy.
I'd rather see lower turnouts. It means fewer uninformed people are
casting ballots. People who stay informed are more likely to show up at
the polls. Let the stupid people stay home and wallow in their ignorance.