Article Makes Case for an "Early" First Shot

[John McAdams]

https://www.acsr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-Estimating-Occult-Timing-of-Surprise-Gunshot-Sounds-in-Silent-Film-via-Observed-Start-of-Human-Voluntary-Reactions-of-Concern-Roselle.pdf

Attempt to vindicate the Holland/Scearce theory of the first shot.

.John
-----------------------
http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/home.htm

[John Corbett]

Post by John McAdams
https://www.acsr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-Estimating-Occult-Timing-of-Surprise-Gunshot-Sounds-in-Silent-Film-via-Observed-Start-of-Human-Voluntary-Reactions-of-Concern-Roselle.pdf
Attempt to vindicate the Holland/Scearce theory of the first shot.

Brian an I have been discussing this quite extensively in two other
threads. This article is quite meticulous in its analysis but I think this
is the key statement in the entire article:

"Errors in estimating when a first stimulus (gunshot sound) arrived at
indi= viduals by back calculating using a delay time can occur for two
reasons: (1) mistakenly identifying the reaction type or expectancy
level".

I don't think the issue is determining what is a startle reaction vs. a
voluntary reaction. It really comes down to determining which movements
are reactions as opposed to the normal movements that both the occupants
of the limo and the spectators could be expected to be doing. The article
seems to argue that Connally's initial head turn to his left before he
turned to his right was a voluntary reaction to the sound of the gunshot.
How do we know that left turn was not just Connally glancing at the
spectators in the grass median between Main and Elm streets? It seems to
me the argument for the early shot hinges on that left head turn being a
reaction to a gunshot.

To me the secondary key is Rosemary Willis. We see her running from the
time Zapruder resumed filming for about two more seconds. At that point
she starts to slow to a gradual stop and then turn back toward the TSBD. I
find it likely her turn to the TSBD was a voluntary reaction to the sound
of the gunshot. It seems to me if she was reacting to a shot fired before
Zapruder resumed filming, she would have shown some kind of response
before Z170 when she began to slow down.

So much of this is in the eye of the beholder. For years I have read
people argue that both JFK and Jackie reacted shortly after Zapruder
resumed filming by turning their heads to the left. In reality Jackie was
already looking left when Zapruder resumed filming. She didn't start
turning her head to the right until about Z172. This is roughly the same
time Rosemary Willis started to slow down. Jackie didn't remember hearing
the first shot but it is likely she did and it simply didn't register in
her memory as a gunshot. As she testified to the WC, it was common for
motorcycles to backfire.

Mrs. KENNEDY. You know, there is always noise in a motorcade and there are
always motorcycles, besides us, a lot of them backfiring. So I was looking
to the left. I guess there was a noise, but it didn't seem like any
different noise really because there is so much noise, motorcycles and
things. But then suddenly Governor Connally was yelling, "Oh, no, no, no."

As for JFK, he took a quick glance to his left and then calmly turned back
to the right to wave to the few remaining spectators on Elm St. I don't
see anything in the Z-film that indicates to me he was reacting to a
gunshot until the second shot hit him.

Since the first shot was a miss and the Z-film is silent, our only clues
to when the first shot was fired are the reactions of the people in the
film. This requires us to interpret what are and are not reactions and
what type of reactions we are seeing. Reasonable people can interpret
those movements differently. I still have to place my chip on a shot fire
at about Z150-151, reaching Connally's ears at Z153-154 which triggered a
voluntary reaction by Connally about Z164 and by Rosemary Willis about
Z170. Whether Jackie's right turn at Z172 was in response to the sound of
a gunshot I can't say. There is a definite blurring of the if the Z-film
at Z158 lasting for three frames. This would be consistent with a startle
response by Zapruder to the sound of a gunshot that reached him at Z154.
It's not proof positive, but it all fits with a gunshot fired at the
Z150-151 range.

[Steve M. Galbraith]

Post by John Corbett

Post by John McAdams
https://www.acsr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-Estimating-Occult-Timing-of-Surprise-Gunshot-Sounds-in-Silent-Film-via-Observed-Start-of-Human-Voluntary-Reactions-of-Concern-Roselle.pdf
Attempt to vindicate the Holland/Scearce theory of the first shot.

Brian an I have been discussing this quite extensively in two other
threads. This article is quite meticulous in its analysis but I think this
"Errors in estimating when a first stimulus (gunshot sound) arrived at
indi viduals by back calculating using a delay time can occur for two
reasons: (1) mistakenly identifying the reaction type or expectancy
level".
I don't think the issue is determining what is a startle reaction vs. a
voluntary reaction. It really comes down to determining which movements
are reactions as opposed to the normal movements that both the occupants
of the limo and the spectators could be expected to be doing. The article
seems to argue that Connally's initial head turn to his left before he
turned to his right was a voluntary reaction to the sound of the gunshot.
How do we know that left turn was not just Connally glancing at the
spectators in the grass median between Main and Elm streets? It seems to
me the argument for the early shot hinges on that left head turn being a
reaction to a gunshot.
To me the secondary key is Rosemary Willis. We see her running from the
time Zapruder resumed filming for about two more seconds. At that point
she starts to slow to a gradual stop and then turn back toward the TSBD. I
find it likely her turn to the TSBD was a voluntary reaction to the sound
of the gunshot. It seems to me if she was reacting to a shot fired before
Zapruder resumed filming, she would have shown some kind of response
before Z170 when she began to slow down.
So much of this is in the eye of the beholder. For years I have read
people argue that both JFK and Jackie reacted shortly after Zapruder
resumed filming by turning their heads to the left. In reality Jackie was
already looking left when Zapruder resumed filming. She didn't start
turning her head to the right until about Z172. This is roughly the same
time Rosemary Willis started to slow down. Jackie didn't remember hearing
the first shot but it is likely she did and it simply didn't register in
her memory as a gunshot. As she testified to the WC, it was common for
motorcycles to backfire.
Mrs. KENNEDY. You know, there is always noise in a motorcade and there are
always motorcycles, besides us, a lot of them backfiring. So I was looking
to the left. I guess there was a noise, but it didn't seem like any
different noise really because there is so much noise, motorcycles and
things. But then suddenly Governor Connally was yelling, "Oh, no, no, no."
As for JFK, he took a quick glance to his left and then calmly turned back
to the right to wave to the few remaining spectators on Elm St. I don't
see anything in the Z-film that indicates to me he was reacting to a
gunshot until the second shot hit him.
Since the first shot was a miss and the Z-film is silent, our only clues
to when the first shot was fired are the reactions of the people in the
film. This requires us to interpret what are and are not reactions and
what type of reactions we are seeing. Reasonable people can interpret
those movements differently. I still have to place my chip on a shot fire
at about Z150-151, reaching Connally's ears at Z153-154 which triggered a
voluntary reaction by Connally about Z164 and by Rosemary Willis about
Z170. Whether Jackie's right turn at Z172 was in response to the sound of
a gunshot I can't say. There is a definite blurring of the if the Z-film
at Z158 lasting for three frames. This would be consistent with a startle
response by Zapruder to the sound of a gunshot that reached him at Z154.
It's not proof positive, but it all fits with a gunshot fired at the
Z150-151 range.

Not to sidetrack this too much but if the first shot was circa Z133 and
the last at Z313, that means the full sequence of shots was about 10
seconds, from first to last. From Z223, the approx. second shot, to Z313
the third, is 90 frames or five seconds. So each shot after the first was
roughly five full seconds apart (Ken O'Donnell, admittedly an outlier
among the witnesses, said they sounded equally distant).

That's astonishing if true. Count out in you head ten seconds. All of the
accounts of a second and third right on top of each other would be
completely wrong. And all of the accounts by the trained, i.e., police,
SS, people there that it was very fast are also wrong. Ten full seconds.
"Ten Seconds in Dallas" sounds a helluva lot different than "Six Seconds
in Dallas."

[John Corbett]

Post by Steve M. Galbraith

Post by John Corbett

Post by John McAdams
https://www.acsr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-Estimating-Occult-Timing-of-Surprise-Gunshot-Sounds-in-Silent-Film-via-Observed-Start-of-Human-Voluntary-Reactions-of-Concern-Roselle.pdf
Attempt to vindicate the Holland/Scearce theory of the first shot.

Brian an I have been discussing this quite extensively in two other
threads. This article is quite meticulous in its analysis but I think this
"Errors in estimating when a first stimulus (gunshot sound) arrived at
indi viduals by back calculating using a delay time can occur for two
reasons: (1) mistakenly identifying the reaction type or expectancy
level".
I don't think the issue is determining what is a startle reaction vs. a
voluntary reaction. It really comes down to determining which movements
are reactions as opposed to the normal movements that both the occupants
of the limo and the spectators could be expected to be doing. The article
seems to argue that Connally's initial head turn to his left before he
turned to his right was a voluntary reaction to the sound of the gunshot.
How do we know that left turn was not just Connally glancing at the
spectators in the grass median between Main and Elm streets? It seems to
me the argument for the early shot hinges on that left head turn being a
reaction to a gunshot.
To me the secondary key is Rosemary Willis. We see her running from the
time Zapruder resumed filming for about two more seconds. At that point
she starts to slow to a gradual stop and then turn back toward the TSBD. I
find it likely her turn to the TSBD was a voluntary reaction to the sound
of the gunshot. It seems to me if she was reacting to a shot fired before
Zapruder resumed filming, she would have shown some kind of response
before Z170 when she began to slow down.
So much of this is in the eye of the beholder. For years I have read
people argue that both JFK and Jackie reacted shortly after Zapruder
resumed filming by turning their heads to the left. In reality Jackie was
already looking left when Zapruder resumed filming. She didn't start
turning her head to the right until about Z172. This is roughly the same
time Rosemary Willis started to slow down. Jackie didn't remember hearing
the first shot but it is likely she did and it simply didn't register in
her memory as a gunshot. As she testified to the WC, it was common for
motorcycles to backfire.
Mrs. KENNEDY. You know, there is always noise in a motorcade and there are
always motorcycles, besides us, a lot of them backfiring. So I was looking
to the left. I guess there was a noise, but it didn't seem like any
different noise really because there is so much noise, motorcycles and
things. But then suddenly Governor Connally was yelling, "Oh, no, no, no."
As for JFK, he took a quick glance to his left and then calmly turned back
to the right to wave to the few remaining spectators on Elm St. I don't
see anything in the Z-film that indicates to me he was reacting to a
gunshot until the second shot hit him.
Since the first shot was a miss and the Z-film is silent, our only clues
to when the first shot was fired are the reactions of the people in the
film. This requires us to interpret what are and are not reactions and
what type of reactions we are seeing. Reasonable people can interpret
those movements differently. I still have to place my chip on a shot fire
at about Z150-151, reaching Connally's ears at Z153-154 which triggered a
voluntary reaction by Connally about Z164 and by Rosemary Willis about
Z170. Whether Jackie's right turn at Z172 was in response to the sound of
a gunshot I can't say. There is a definite blurring of the if the Z-film
at Z158 lasting for three frames. This would be consistent with a startle
response by Zapruder to the sound of a gunshot that reached him at Z154.
It's not proof positive, but it all fits with a gunshot fired at the
Z150-151 range.

Not to sidetrack this too much but if the first shot was circa Z133 and
the last at Z313, that means the full sequence of shots was about 10
seconds, from first to last. From Z223, the approx. second shot, to Z313
the third, is 90 frames or five seconds. So each shot after the first was
roughly five full seconds apart (Ken O'Donnell, admittedly an outlier
among the witnesses, said they sounded equally distant).
That's astonishing if true. Count out in you head ten seconds. All of the
accounts of a second and third right on top of each other would be
completely wrong. And all of the accounts by the trained, i.e., police,
SS, people there that it was very fast are also wrong. Ten full seconds.
"Ten Seconds in Dallas" sounds a helluva lot different than "Six Seconds
in Dallas."

I believe Brian has postulated a shot about a half second before Zapruder
resumed filming which would place it at a theoretical 124. Max Holland
believes it was even earlier. About a full second earlier if I remember
right.

It is my belief that all the witnesses who thought they heard two shots
right on top of each other were actually hearing multiple sounds from the
same shot.

If I am correct that first shot was fired about Z150-151, the head shot
would have been fired 160 frames later for an elapsed time of 8.7 seconds.
The second shot would have been fired about 70 frames (3.8 seconds) later.
The elapsed time between the second and third shots would have been 90
frames (4.9 seconds). Not quite evenly spaced but fairly close. Someone
estimating the spacing could reasonably believe they were evenly spaced.

[Anthony Marsh]

Post by John Corbett

Post by John McAdams
https://www.acsr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-Estimating-Occult-Timing-of-Surprise-Gunshot-Sounds-in-Silent-Film-via-Observed-Start-of-Human-Voluntary-Reactions-of-Concern-Roselle.pdf
Attempt to vindicate the Holland/Scearce theory of the first shot.

Brian an I have been discussing this quite extensively in two other
threads. This article is quite meticulous in its analysis but I think this
"Errors in estimating when a first stimulus (gunshot sound) arrived at
indi=iduals by back calculating using a delay time can occur for two
reasons: (1) mistakenly identifying the reaction type or expectancy
level".
I don't think the issue is determining what is a startle reaction vs. a
voluntary reaction. It really comes down to determining which movements
are reactions as opposed to the normal movements that both the occupants
of the limo and the spectators could be expected to be doing. The article
seems to argue that Connally's initial head turn to his left before he
turned to his right was a voluntary reaction to the sound of the gunshot.
How do we know that left turn was not just Connally glancing at the
spectators in the grass median between Main and Elm streets? It seems to
me the argument for the early shot hinges on that left head turn being a
reaction to a gunshot.
To me the secondary key is Rosemary Willis. We see her running from the
time Zapruder resumed filming for about two more seconds. At that point
she starts to slow to a gradual stop and then turn back toward the TSBD. I
find it likely her turn to the TSBD was a voluntary reaction to the sound
of the gunshot. It seems to me if she was reacting to a shot fired before
Zapruder resumed filming, she would have shown some kind of response
before Z170 when she began to slow down.
So much of this is in the eye of the beholder. For years I have read
people argue that both JFK and Jackie reacted shortly after Zapruder
resumed filming by turning their heads to the left. In reality Jackie was
already looking left when Zapruder resumed filming. She didn't start
turning her head to the right until about Z172. This is roughly the same
time Rosemary Willis started to slow down. Jackie didn't remember hearing
the first shot but it is likely she did and it simply didn't register in
her memory as a gunshot. As she testified to the WC, it was common for
motorcycles to backfire.
Mrs. KENNEDY. You know, there is always noise in a motorcade and there are
always motorcycles, besides us, a lot of them backfiring. So I was looking
to the left. I guess there was a noise, but it didn't seem like any

Some witnesses did react to a backfire.

Post by John Corbett
different noise really because there is so much noise, motorcycles and
things. But then suddenly Governor Connally was yelling, "Oh, no, no, no."
As for JFK, he took a quick glance to his left and then calmly turned back

I think the glance was a reaction to the spectators on the south side of
Elm.

Post by John Corbett
to the right to wave to the few remaining spectators on Elm St. I don't
see anything in the Z-film that indicates to me he was reacting to a
gunshot until the second shot hit him.
Since the first shot was a miss and the Z-film is silent, our only clues

Well, it missed hitting anybody, but what did it hit?

Post by John Corbett
to when the first shot was fired are the reactions of the people in the
film. This requires us to interpret what are and are not reactions and
what type of reactions we are seeing. Reasonable people can interpret
those movements differently. I still have to place my chip on a shot fire
at about Z150-151, reaching Connally's ears at Z153-154 which triggered a
voluntary reaction by Connally about Z164 and by Rosemary Willis about
Z170. Whether Jackie's right turn at Z172 was in response to the sound of
a gunshot I can't say. There is a definite blurring of the if the Z-film
at Z158 lasting for three frames. This would be consistent with a startle
response by Zapruder to the sound of a gunshot that reached him at Z154.
It's not proof positive, but it all fits with a gunshot fired at the
Z150-151 range.

[Edward Bauer]

Post by Anthony Marsh

Post by John Corbett

Post by John McAdams
https://www.acsr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-Estimating-Occult-Timing-of-Surprise-Gunshot-Sounds-in-Silent-Film-via-Observed-Start-of-Human-Voluntary-Reactions-of-Concern-Roselle.pdf
Attempt to vindicate the Holland/Scearce theory of the first shot.

Brian an I have been discussing this quite extensively in two other
threads. This article is quite meticulous in its analysis but I think this
"Errors in estimating when a first stimulus (gunshot sound) arrived at
indi=iduals by back calculating using a delay time can occur for two
reasons: (1) mistakenly identifying the reaction type or expectancy
level".
I don't think the issue is determining what is a startle reaction vs. a
voluntary reaction. It really comes down to determining which movements
are reactions as opposed to the normal movements that both the occupants
of the limo and the spectators could be expected to be doing. The article
seems to argue that Connally's initial head turn to his left before he
turned to his right was a voluntary reaction to the sound of the gunshot.
How do we know that left turn was not just Connally glancing at the
spectators in the grass median between Main and Elm streets? It seems to
me the argument for the early shot hinges on that left head turn being a
reaction to a gunshot.
To me the secondary key is Rosemary Willis. We see her running from the
time Zapruder resumed filming for about two more seconds. At that point
she starts to slow to a gradual stop and then turn back toward the TSBD. I
find it likely her turn to the TSBD was a voluntary reaction to the sound
of the gunshot. It seems to me if she was reacting to a shot fired before
Zapruder resumed filming, she would have shown some kind of response
before Z170 when she began to slow down.
So much of this is in the eye of the beholder. For years I have read
people argue that both JFK and Jackie reacted shortly after Zapruder
resumed filming by turning their heads to the left. In reality Jackie was
already looking left when Zapruder resumed filming. She didn't start
turning her head to the right until about Z172. This is roughly the same
time Rosemary Willis started to slow down. Jackie didn't remember hearing
the first shot but it is likely she did and it simply didn't register in
her memory as a gunshot. As she testified to the WC, it was common for
motorcycles to backfire.
Mrs. KENNEDY. You know, there is always noise in a motorcade and there are
always motorcycles, besides us, a lot of them backfiring. So I was looking
to the left. I guess there was a noise, but it didn't seem like any

Some witnesses did react to a backfire.

Post by John Corbett
different noise really because there is so much noise, motorcycles and
things. But then suddenly Governor Connally was yelling, "Oh, no, no, no."
As for JFK, he took a quick glance to his left and then calmly turned back

I think the glance was a reaction to the spectators on the south side of
Elm.

Post by John Corbett
to the right to wave to the few remaining spectators on Elm St. I don't
see anything in the Z-film that indicates to me he was reacting to a
gunshot until the second shot hit him.
Since the first shot was a miss and the Z-film is silent, our only clues

Well, it missed hitting anybody, but what did it hit?

Post by John Corbett
to when the first shot was fired are the reactions of the people in the
film. This requires us to interpret what are and are not reactions and
what type of reactions we are seeing. Reasonable people can interpret
those movements differently. I still have to place my chip on a shot fire
at about Z150-151, reaching Connally's ears at Z153-154 which triggered a
voluntary reaction by Connally about Z164 and by Rosemary Willis about
Z170. Whether Jackie's right turn at Z172 was in response to the sound of
a gunshot I can't say. There is a definite blurring of the if the Z-film
at Z158 lasting for three frames. This would be consistent with a startle
response by Zapruder to the sound of a gunshot that reached him at Z154.
It's not proof positive, but it all fits with a gunshot fired at the
Z150-151 range.

There is plenty of evidence of the first shot’s timing. Secret
Service Special Agents Clint Hill and Paul Landis both testified to the WC
that the first shot occurred as they “began to straighten
out” during their turn from Houston onto Elm, exactly where the
FBI spliced 8 frames from Tina Towner’s film to hide her camera
jiggle reaction to that explosive first shot directly above her head.
The only jiggle analyses of the Robert Hughes, Tina Towner and Elsie
Dorman films confirms by triangulation when and where the first shot was
fired. It missed because it wasn’t fired at the limo in the first
place; it was Oswald’s indispensable zeroing shot.


-------
The Final Truth: Solving the Mystery of the JFK Assassination
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1490350578

[Anthony Marsh]

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