Post by ajohnstonePost by John McAdamsYou are simply ignoring the data and facts I've posted.
What you have done is selectively picked some data and assumed that it is
related to the problem America faces. You engage in a form of denialism.
You are the one in denial. The out of wedlock births are a disaster.
Post by ajohnstoneCorrelation does not imply causation. You try to insinuate by associating
out of wedlock figures with the murder rate that it reflects a moral or
cultural decline.
Are you aware of the consequences of being born out of wedlock for
kids?
Barack Obama was willing to be honest about that:
https://www.politico.com/story/2008/06/text-of-obamas-fatherhood-speech-011094
<Quote on>
You and I know how true this is in the African-American community. We
know that more than half of all black children live in single-parent
households, a number that has doubled doubled since we were
children. We know the statistics that children who grow up without a
father are five times more likely to live in poverty and commit crime;
nine times more likely to drop out of schools and 20 times more likely
to end up in prison. They are more likely to have behavioral problems,
or run away from home or become teenage parents themselves. And the
foundations of our community are weaker because of it.
<end quote>
Post by ajohnstoneYou cite single-parent families statistics but you
present no reason why that it is so. It is because a soundbite is better
than some actual scientific investigation.
It's a disaster, regardless of the reason.
But you want a reason: the sexual revolution of the 60s. Add to that
a Great Society that made being on welfare must more tolerable, and
lacked incentives to work.
Post by ajohnstoneThe reason that the share of births that are out-of-wedlock has increased
from 37.5 to 71 percent since 1970, is because although births to black
unmarried women have fallen considerably, married black couples have cut
back even further on childbearing. And if married black couples are having
far fewer children than before and are cutting back even faster than
single women, the overall percentage of births that are out-of-wedlock
will rise, owing nothing to the supposedly irresponsible behaviors of
single black folks.
Jencks and Peterson in 'The Urban Underclass', note that from 1960 to
1987, there was a massive decline in the number of children being born to
married black couples. If black couples had continued to have children by
1987 at the same rates as they had them in 1960, the percentage of black
births that were out of wedlock would have only risen from 23 to 29
percent, rather than nearly tripling over that period. In 1960, married
black couples could be expected to have 3.5 children on average, but by
the late 80s, they were averaging less than one child per family,
meaning the average number of kids born to married black couples fell by
nearly three-fourths! Those numbers remain the same today, suggesting that
it is the falloff in births to black two-parent families that explains the
rising out-of-wedlock share of black births overall. It has nothing to do
with an increase in irresponsible sexual activity or a cultural desire for
bearing kids outside of marriage.
It has *everything* to go with irresponsible sexual activity or a
cultural desire for bearing kids outside of marriage.
If you go here:
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2019/national/asrh/nc-est2019-asr5h.xlsx
And then look at the Excel sheet titled "Black," you will see that in
2010 there were 13,019,510 blacks in the US under 18.
And in 2018 there were 13,141,269.
About 70% of all those kids were born out of wedlock.
That is a disaster.
Post by ajohnstoneYou present what America is facing ahistorical, totally ignoring the long
history of segregation and discrimination that has led to poverty - and it
is poverty that is the major contributing factor to under-achievement and
crime. African-Americans tend to offend more because they tend to be more
disadvantaged, living in poorer urban areas with less access to public
services, and so on.
You are ignoring the data. Why were only 12% of black kids born out
of wedlock in 1917.
https://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/posc2201/Welfare/Illegitimate_Early.pdf
Was there less segregation and discrimination back then?
Post by ajohnstoneThe vast majority of homicide victims are killed by people of their own
race. Why not talk about the prevalence of white-on-white homicides? A
2011 FBI report showed that 86% of white American victims were killed by
other white people. Whites are the largest racial group in America, and
commit the majority of crimes.
But blacks commit crimes to a hugely *disproportionate* degree.
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/topic-pages/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-6.xls
Blacks, 13% of the population commit nearly half of all murders.
Mostly against other blacks.
Post by ajohnstoneAnd of course you know one of the reasons why ALL America's murder and
suicides rates are higher than comparative countries is the availability
of guns.
Nonsense.
Post by ajohnstoneYou scramble for any excuse for the strong lingering racist sentiments
that exist in certain sectors of the US population, a legacy of the past.
It's really sleazy to accuse somebody who presents you with data that
contradicts your favored narrative of being a racist.
It's obvious you feel really good about yourself being "anti-racist,"
and thinking that if all those *other* white people quit being racist
things would be fine for black people.
It's just not that simple.
.John
-----------------------
http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/home.htm